The rankings of the United States, Canada and Mexico are based on the FIFA rankings. Is Italy expected to hit the first tier?

Sports Weekly All-Media Reporter Li Jingyi

The "Football Meets Data" organization has announced major rule changes for the United States, Canada and Mexico World Cup. FIFA may change the tiering principle for teams promoted in the play-offs. They will no longer be lumped into the fourth tier. Instead, each team will be determined according to the highest FIFA-ranked team in each play-off path. If the news revealed by this agency is true, the classification and drawing of teams for the 2026 World Cup will undergo drastic changes.

In the 2022 World Cup in Qatar, all national teams that have obtained tickets for the main game through the play-offs are unified into the fourth tier. If the United States, Canada and Mexico reclassify the tiers according to the FIFA rankings, the Italian team (currently ranked 9th in the world) will be promoted to the first tier in the play-off promotion path, the German team (currently ranked 10th in the world) will be squeezed into the second tier, and the Austrian team will fall to the third tier. The four teams of Turkey, Ukraine, Poland, and Nigeria and their play-off path teams were promoted from the fourth to the third tier, while the Tunisia, Qatar, Uzbekistan, Saudi Arabia, and South Africa teams fell to the fourth tier.

The draw ceremony for the 2026 World Cup qualifying play-offs will be held on November 20 at the FIFA headquarters in Zurich, Switzerland. Currently, 28 teams have entered the main draw, and another 14 teams will advance through their respective intercontinental qualifiers on the international match day in November. The remaining 22 teams will compete for the final six spots through play-offs.

The European play-offs will be composed of the 12 second-placed teams and the top 4 best-performing UEFA Nations League teams. The 16 teams are divided into 4 paths. The 4 teams will compete in the semi-finals and finals through a single elimination system to determine the last 4 World Cup places in the European zone. In order to ensure compliance with the draw rules, FIFA will update the world rankings on November 19 to determine the basis for the draw.