[Preview of the match] 8 matches on August 12: Champions League Fenerbahce vs Feyenoord

1. The "hard threshold" of the turnaround and Fenerbahce's offensive pressure

Fenebahce lost 1-2 in the first leg, which means that **"at least 1 goal difference" (such as 1-0, 2-1, etc.) must be reached in this game before the total score can be equalized into overtime, or the goal difference is 2 goals or more ** (such as 2-0, 3-1, etc.) will be directly promoted. This premise determines that Fenerbahce must take the initiative to push forward from the beginning of the game and invest more troops on the offensive end - but this may become its weakness.

Fenerbahce lost core offensive players such as Dzeko (13 goals and 5 assists in the league last season) and Tadic (10 goals and 11 assists). Although new players Brown and Semedo are capable, it will take time to get along with the team's tactical exercises, and the stability of the offensive end may decline. Although Fenerbahce equalized the score in the first leg, it relies on the opponent's space after shrinking, and it is necessary to actively create opportunities in this game, and efficiency may be reduced.

2. Feyenoord's "advantage preservation" logic

Feyenoord holds the lead 2-1 away game, and has more flexible tactical choices: he can defend and counterattack first, use the altitude of Fenerbahce's pressure to create a threat, or he can press on moderately when he is behind. Judging from their performance in the first round, they showed the tactical elasticity of "retracting when leading, and counterattack when passively" - Timbers scored first and then turned to defense, and immediately pressed up after being equalized, and finally Jahan Bahish completed the final kill. This ability to grasp the key ball is worth paying attention to.

In addition, Feyenoord's lineup adjustment range in the summer window is controllable: although he sent away the main players such as Paisan and Hartmann, the introduced Gonzalo (12 goals in the Portuguese Super League last season) and Stern (Eleven steals the king-level midfielder) have quickly integrated into the team, and the two consecutive victories (Champions League + League) have proved that the team is in a stable state. In terms of physical fitness, although continuous main players may be consumed, it is easier to save physical energy through rhythm control (such as slowing offense and defense conversion) to counter Fenerbahce's high-level pressing.

3. Home advantage and "overheating risk"

Fenebache's home atmosphere (such as the Saragioglu Stadium, known as the home court of Hell) can indeed improve morale, but the excessive support from the outside world may have a "home heat premium". The gap in the hard power of the two teams has not widened: the first round of the game was 55, and Feyenoord's possession rate (51%) and shots (12-11) were basically the same as Fenerbahce, but the key treatment was more efficient.

If Fenerbahce is eager to attack, the defense may be exposed to space - Feyenoord winger Sinistera (first leg assist) and midfielder Thiel (goal in the opening game of the Eredivisie) counterattack speed is the key to breaking the deadlock. Once he is hit and lost the ball, Fenerbahce's confidence in turning the table may collapse.

Conclusion: Fenerbahce's turnaround is difficult. Feyenoord has the opportunity to advance in regular time

Fenerbahce's home momentum and the motivation to attack are potential chips for the turnaround, but the lineup is insufficient and the loss of offensive core weakens the offensive ability; Feyenoord holds the advantage of the score, has better tactical elasticity and key ball grasp ability, and can resolve the home team's offensive pressure through defensive counterattacks. Overall, Feyenoord is more likely to maintain his advantage (such as 0-0, 1-1 or 1-2 small losses) in regular time. Fenerbahce needs to turn around in overtime or even penalty kicks, but it is extremely difficult.