Sunday 010 Japanese > Tokushima Uzumaki VS Chiba Ichihara

Tokushima Uzumaki vs Chiba Ichihara In-depth analysis

18:00 on June 15, 2025, the 19th round of the Japanese vocational B will stage a battle for upgrading qualifications - Tokushima Uzumaki (32 points, 5th place) will face Chiba Ichihara at home (30 points, 7th place). The two teams are only 2 points apart, and the outcome of this game directly affects the upgraded play-off pattern. The following is based on the data of the Japanese official website, club announcements and authoritative sports media (Leisu Sports, NetEase Sports), and analyzes from multiple dimensions of lineup, tactics, player status and event impact.

1. The recent state and points situation of the two teams

Tokushima Vortex (9 wins, 5 draws and 4 losses in 18 rounds, with 32 points)

Defensive victory: Only 7 goals were conceded in the league, conceded 0.39 goals per game, making it the best defense line in Japan B. It has a stable state of 6 wins, 1 draw and 1 loss in the last 8 rounds.

Offensive shortcomings: Average goals 0.94 goals per game (third from the bottom in the league), set-piece scores account for 30%, and a 21% counterattack conversion rate has become the main offensive method.

Home Resilience: 3 wins and 1 draw in the last 4 home games, but the home winning rate of the season is only 50% (8 games 4 wins, 2 draws and 2 losses).

Chiba Ichihara (9 wins, 3 draws and 6 losses in 18 rounds, 30 points)

Full firepower: 39 goals were scored in the league (the most in Japanese B), forward Hiro Komori contributed 9 goals, ranking at the top of the scorer list.

Offensive and defensive imbalance: Average of 1.16 goals per game, 8 goals conceded in the last 5 games, and the high-level defense line is easily broken by counterattacks.

Away fluctuation: 4 wins, 3 draws and 3 losses in the last 10 away games, but recently won two consecutive away games (including a 4-0 victory over Saniki).

2. Official lineup and key player status

Key players of Tokushima Uzumaki (based on the club's official website and league registration list)

Midfielder: Sugimoto Taro (No. 10)

Organization core: Average of 1.8 key passes per game, and the penalty kicker is the one who takes the set ball, but the recent pass success rate has dropped to 82%.

Forward: Dora Daishen (No. 16)

The team scorer king (6 goals), good at grabbing points, but only 1 goal in the last 3 rounds, and the ending efficiency has declined.

defender: Ishii Hideno (No. 4)

The success rate of the top is 75%, and he partnered with Marfaldo to form a three-center-back system, but the slow turning speed is a hidden danger.

Key player of Chiba City (based on club announcements and J League data)

Forward: Hira Komori (No. 10)

No. 1 scorer (9 goals), scored the winning goal in the last round, but recently he was targeted by key points and shots dropped to 35%.

Midfielder: Tsuna Naoki (No. 14)

Absent from injury (4 goals and 1 assist in 14 games), weakening the creativity of the midfielder. Substitute Ryota Aoki needs to bear the heavy responsibility of the organization.

defender: Kubo Tetsu Ryota (injury)

Right knee ligament injury, missing 12 games, the right defense was played by Takahashi Hirosuke, and his stability is doubtful.

3. Tactical comparison and coach deployment

Uzumaki Tokushima: Three central defenders defend + quick counterattack

Head coach Matsuda Kozuka (average 1.9 points per game) Mainly play 3-4-2-1:

Defense: compresses the space in the middle, limits Feiya Komori to catch the ball, and the wingback's return depth reaches 80%.

Offensive: Sugimoto Taro made a straight pass and connected with Daiyu. Alves made a breakthrough from the wing (3.2 times per game), and set-piece scored 30%.

Chiba Ichihara: High-pressing + side-center-center coach Kobayashi Keihiro (1.8 points per game) continues to use 4-2-3-1:

Firepower coverage: Komori Yoshiro scored points in the penalty area, Tanaka Kazuki cut in and long shots (2.1 times per game), but Tsubaki's absence caused the penetration efficiency to decrease in the middle.

Hidden danger: High-level defense line is easily beaten by long passes, and it is a 1-4 defeat against Sendai's Qixi Festival away.

4. Historical confrontations and venue factors

The last 10 matches: Chiba Ichihara has 2 wins, 6 draws and 2 losses, but he has beaten Tokushima 1-0 away in the first leg of the season.

Psychological Game:

Tokushima has been unbeaten in the last 4 home games (3 wins and 1 draw), and fans have supported their confidence;

Chiba has a conservative team away game with only 40% of their winning rate (2 wins in the last 5 games).

Venue impact:

Tokushima's home court "Naruto Ozuka Arena" artificial turf is conducive to passing and control, but Chiba is highly adaptable (away goal rate of 1.8 goals/game).

5. Event impact forecast

watershed of upgrade qualifications:

Tokushima: If you win, you can overtake the fourth place (3 points from the direct upgrade zone), if you lose, you may be overtaken by the 8th place;

Chiba: If you win, you can rush into the top six (upgrade the playoffs), if you lose, you will be 5 points behind the playoffs.

💎 Comprehensive conclusion

Balance of victory and loss: Tokushima has a stable defense (per-game conceded 0.39 goals per game) to restrain Chiba from being strong offense and being weak (per-game conceded 1.16 goals per game), and the probability of the home team being unbeaten is higher (60%).