In-depth analysis | Can Manchester United defeat Athletic Bilbao, which is full of wounded soldiers at home?

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With a huge advantage of 3-0 away in the first leg, Manchester United returned to Old Trafford to face Athletic Bilbao, and the tickets for the UEFA Cup final seemed to be within reach. However, the charm of football matches lies precisely in their uncertainty. Although the promotion situation is very good, the ups and downs of Manchester United's league performance this season and the attributes of Athletic Bilbao as a team that has always been tough still make this match in the second round not without suspense. However, when we analyze it in depth with the latest intelligence and technical statistics, the prospect of Manchester United winning again at home seems extremely bright.

The most core factor is undoubtedly the catastrophic injury suffered by Athletic Bilbao. They not only lack the main central defender Danny Vivian who was suspended due to red cards, but more fatal, the team's three major pillars on the offensive end - Nico Williams, the extremely fast wing explosive point, Iniyaki Williams, the experienced and powerful impactful midfielder Oyhan Sansett, who participated in the most goals in the UEFA Cup this season, were unable to play due to injury.

According to the technical statistics of the UEFA Cup, these three players contributed more than 57% of the goals and nearly 40% of the expected goals and assists (non-penalties). Their collective absence almost paralyzed Bi Bao's entire offensive system. This means that the visiting team not only lost the most important scoring method, but also greatly reduced the ability to create opportunities. Vivian's absence also weakened the stability of the defense line, and he made significant contributions to key defensive data such as interception, clearance and blocking shots. A team that needs to win three goals away from home to see hope, but has lost almost all offensive weapons and a defensive core. The difficulties it faces can be imagined.

In contrast, although Manchester United also has its own injury problems, and the defense line lacks De Ligt and Lisandro Martinez, who has been in trouble for a long time, their core offensive framework is still complete. Captain Bruno Fernandez is in a hot state. He is the team's absolute thigh in the Europa League, contributing 7 goals and 3 assists, and averaging more than 6 shooting opportunities per game. Center Hoylund is quite efficient in the UEFA Cup, scoring 5 goals and having 2 assists. Garnacho on the wing also showed strong impact and creativity, sending 4 assists.

More importantly, head coach Amorin clearly regarded the Europa League as the top priority of the season and rested in the weekend league with several main players, including the above-mentioned core players, to ensure that they welcomed this critical battle with abundant physical fitness. Manchester United's offensive firepower in the UEFA Cup this season is very strong, averaging 2.25 goals per game, creating an expected goal of 2.16. Facing the defensive core absent and must press on the offensive Bibao defense line, their offensive advantage will be more prominent.

Of course, Manchester United is not without hidden worries. Head coach Amorin also admitted that the team's performance is unstable this season, and sometimes "lossesses" in the game, and is prone to conceding goals in a short period of time. With huge advantages in hand, it is also a question whether there is a risk of relaxation in the player's mentality. However, Amorin's repeated warnings before the game, the huge temptation to directly reach the Champions League, and the desire to prove himself in front of home fans have all hedged to a certain extent the risk of insufficient motivation. What's more, although Manchester United's own defense is not the strongest, they will face an opponent who has almost lost all effective offensive methods, and the actual pressure on the defensive end will be much less than the loss on paper.

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To sum up, although the football world is full of surprises, the fundamentals of this game are extremely unbalanced. Athletic Bilbao suffered a devastating weakening of strength (especially on the offensive end) due to the collective absence of core players, which made them very unlikely to make a move away. Manchester United has a home advantage, the core offensive lineup is complete and has a round rest, a clear fighting spirit, and has a strong performance in the UEFA Cup. Despite certain power and stability risks, the opponent's huge dilemma has made Manchester United's advantages infinitely magnified.

Therefore, without extreme surprises, Manchester United's defeat of Athletic Bilbao again at Old Trafford is the most logical and most probable judgment based on existing intelligence and data analysis.