Friday 007 AC Milan vs Bologna! The draw may be the best ending of this game!

The situation of points and the game of fighting will

1. The competition for European qualifications is fierce

- AC Milan: 57 points are temporarily ranked 9th, 6 points away from the European League, but there are only 3 rounds left in the league, so you need to strive for European qualifications with all your strength.

- Bologna: Ranked 7th with 62 points, only 1 point away from the Champions League, and its fighting spirit is stronger. If you win this game, you will basically lock in a European seat.

- Double line pressure: Milan will play the Italian Cup final next week, and some main players may be rotated; Bologna, as the final opponent, may have the same strategy.

2. Historical Confrontation and Psychological Advantage

-Milan has been in the last 5 matches with 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 loss, but lost 1-2 away in the first leg of this season.

- Milan has remained unbeaten against Bologna in the last 8 home games (6 wins and 2 draws), and San Siro can be called the "Bologna Nightmare Stadium".

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Line and Injury Impact

1. AC Milan: Defensive restructuring and offensive dependence

- Injury list: Leo (suspended), Abraham (injury), Bondo (injury), and only Pulisic and Jovic remain on the front line.

-Defense line hazard: Temporary central defender combination Kyar + Gabiya averaged 1.4 goals per game, and his high-altitude ball defense was weak (PPDA value 14th in Serie A).

- Midfield adjustment: Bennaser's muscle fatigue is doubtful, and Reindez needs to undertake more offensive and defensive conversion tasks.

2. Bologna: The counterattack efficiency has declined but the defense has been stable

- Key absences: Endoye (8 goals and 3 assists in 28 games), Ferguson (season reimbursement), the counterattack threat has dropped by 40%.

- The defense line is complete: After Karafiori's comeback, the stability of the central defender combination has improved, and the proportion of away goals conceded this season is only 30%.

- Tactical execution: Continuing the 2-7-2 formation, relying on the wing breakthrough and set-piece tactics of Dalinga and Orsolini (3rd in the corner kick score).

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Tactical counterattack and winners

1. Milan's wing attack vs. Bologna's intensive defense

- Milan needs to crack Bologna's 2-7-2 defense compression, Pulic's wing breakthrough and Jovic's ability to grab points become the key.

- Bologna may take a low post defense and use the gap after Milan's defense line to launch a quick counterattack.

2. Offensive and Defensive Confrontation in Setting Foot

- Milan scored 9 goals through corner kicks this season (5th in Serie A), and Giroud's header success rate was 68%.

- Bologna's set-piece defense is solid (0.8 points per game by corner kick), but the air defense error rate is as high as 12%.

3. Physical energy allocation and rotation strategy

- If Milan retains strength for the Cup, it may hide core points such as Giroud and Teo. Substitutes Chik and Kamalda need to prove their strength.

- Bologna's main players played, but the double-game for a consecutive week may affect the defensive focus in the second half.

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Data model and results prediction

1. Comparison of key data

Dimensions AC Milan Bologna

Average goals 1.9 (home 2.3) 1.4 (away 1.1)

Average goals 1.4 (home 1.2) 1.0 (away 0.9)

possession rate 53% 51%

positive rate 42% 38%

2. Institutional tendency and market popularity

- The initial index mainly gave 0.5 goals to a low water, and dropped to 0.25 goals on the spot, reflecting the market's lack of confidence in Milan's big victory.

-BigFa's main winning volume accounts for 68%, but the draw odds continue to decline (3.40→3.10), and the probability of double draws is relatively high.

3. Comprehensive prediction

- Win-loss direction: Milan has obvious home advantage but has a broken front line, Bologna has a stable defense but has weak counterattack, and the probability of a double draw (a draw or a small Milan win) is 70%.

- Score reference: 1-1 (probability 35%), 1-0 (25%), 0-0 (20%).

- Number of goals: 1-2 goals (70% probability), with a high probability of 0-0 in the half.

Recommended double-level

Age reference 21 11

Pictures are from the Internet