[Forecast] The historical status is not good. The Gunners need a miracle to visit Paris.

The second leg of the Champions League semi-final

Thursday 03:00

Paris Saint-Germain vs Arsenal (first leg 1-0)

Sports Weekly All Media Original

Inter Milan and Barcelona played the earth-shaking semi-finals. Can Arsenal create another famous game in another Paris Saint-Germain match? Fans are definitely waiting to watch the big show, but at least in terms of the pre-match atmosphere, this suspense of this game tonight seems not as sufficient as the previous one. Inter Milan and Barcelona have distinct characteristics and are capable of showing off at critical moments. The Paris Gunners here are somewhat "unequal", not only the score, but also the momentum and state seem to be quite different. After losing 0-1 at home in the first leg, Arsenal, who had been looking forward to returning to the Champions League final after 19 years, has actually been forced to the edge of the cliff. Theoretically, the gap of 1 goal is not big. Even if Paris holds the home advantage, the Gunners who are visiting have the chance to "steal an opportunity" and then pull their opponents off. But the problem is that at this stage of the Champions League, almost no team will make the mistake of losing their advantages at home casually.

As evidenced by history, since the UEFA Champions League reform in 1992, he won away in the first leg of the semi-finals and was reversed at home in the second leg. He only happened twice in total: one was Ajax's reversal of Panathinaks in 1995-96, and the other was Ajax's reversal by Tottenham in 2018-19. So does Arteta's team have a chance to become the third team to create miracles? Historical data are still unfavorable to them. Before this, Arsenal never advanced to the European knockout round with the premise of losing at home in the first leg. Correspondingly, Paris Saint-Germain won the first round of the two-round competition and had only once been eliminated by his opponent. That was the 2018-19 season facing Manchester United.

In view of this, it is difficult for the outside world to have greater confidence in Arsenal, and the Gunners themselves reduced the popularity of the team a lot. As a team that wants to qualify for the Champions League final, the league loss is not worth making a fuss. Paris Saint-Germain also lost 1-2 last weekend, but it is obvious that Arsenal's 1-2 against Bournemouth is a bit unreasonable - Paris Saint-Germain rotated the entire team, but the Gunners were the main players, which is called losing both the wife and the soldiers. Arteta's choice is completely confusing.

After the Premier League was defeated, the Arsenal coach once expressed his desire to convert the anger and annoyance of losing into the battle against Paris Saint-Germain. This seems to be a bit like "a tragic soldier will win", but it is quite doubtful whether it will work. This is not to mention whether the gunman can be stronger than Paris. In terms of physical health and physical fitness, the former is undoubtedly at a disadvantage. On Arsenal's injury list, there are still a long list of names such as Havertz and Gabriel.

Of course there is good news, such as Thomas Patty ended the suspension, Odgao was injured without any injury, Timber and Calafiori, who did not participate in the league last weekend, also flew to Paris with the team. Thomas' comeback was very important. In the first leg, the Gunners were turned away by Louis Enrique's team. They were almost overwhelmed 30 minutes before the game. It was considered one of the important reasons without Ghana's midfielder.

After Thomas' return, Arsenal not only got the midfield stabilization needle again, but the balance in the midfield is also expected to rebound - Rice will have more opportunities to step forward to show his impact, and Merino may be mentioned again to the front line, using his strong body to provide support to Saka and others. But these changes alone may not be enough for Arsenal. This season, the Gunners have experienced significant decline in offensive creativity, one of the main reasons is that Odgao's condition is extremely unsatisfactory. There have been many voices asking Arteta to win Odegao's captain's armband and even be qualified to play.

If Arteta is a little bolder, can Arsenal come up with some strange tricks? It seems that this is also difficult at the moment, because there are only a dozen players with the Gunners, and the combination method is limited, and most of them have been carefully studied by their opponents. Of course, the Gunners also have the killer move of set-pieces, while Paris Saint-Germain is not outstanding in defense, except goalkeeper Donnarumma, but the Gunners must first create enough set-piece opportunities in order to fully display their strengths.

As for Paris Saint-Germain, Enrique has a lot of cards in his hands, and he should also play the strongest set. In the first leg at the Emirates Stadium, Dembele's injury once added some doubts to Paris. If the team's "pseudo 9 true core" is missing in the second leg, the advantage of one goal is really not safe enough, but now it seems that the French striker's problem is not big. "Demberle has been training with us for two days, and he can play." This is the information revealed by the Paris Saint-Germain coach at the pre-match press conference, and it is also a hint that at home they not only need to keep one goal ahead, but to win steadily is a normal state.

Finally, let’s take a look at Opta’s supercomputer deduction: Arsenal’s probability of winning is only 30%, and the probability of advancing is as low as 22%. Regarding the first three simulations of the Champions League semi-finals, the supercomputer almost "wrongly calculated". This time it finally gave the correct answer? Or will it be wrong again?