European Preliminary 004 2: 45 Albania VS Serbia Pre-match intelligence collection, sharing, analysis and prediction

Albania VS Serbia

Cup: 2025-2026 World Cup European Qualifiers

European Qualifiers 2:45 Albania VS Serbia Venue: Albania Airlines Stadium Weather: Sunny Temperature: 29℃~30℃

Albania (home team) has 27 players, the team's value is €108.6m, the average age is 27.5 years old, FIFA World Ranking: No. 66.

The record of the last 6 games: 2 wins, 1 draw and 3 losses, 7 goals in the last 10 games, conceded 9 goals, and a goal difference of -2.

Group ranking: 1 win, 0 draw, 1 loss, 3 points, ranking second in the group.

Home score: 3 wins, 3 draws and 4 losses

Personnel situation: In the last game, Albanian player Rey Manayi scored twice, and Mirto Uzuni scored a goal.

Albania's current roster consists of domestic talented players and European experience, and with Tirana's home court advantage, the hosts are likely to take the game seriously.

Fighting interest: Albania has made encouraging progress recently, especially after they qualify for the 2024 European Cup.

Team Recent Status: Albania won the last game. They beat Andorra 3-0 at the Albanian Air Stadium, with the Ross and Blacks having an incredible 86% possession.

Albania has scored three points in the first two games of Group K, and they are preparing to face Serbia in Tirana on Saturday. Albania started their qualifying tournament with a 0-2 loss to England at Wembley Stadium, then rebounded strongly to defeat Andorra 3-0.

Albania VS Serbia

Serbia (visit team) has 24 players, the team is worth €245.9m, the average age is 26.2 years old, FIFA world ranking: 31st.

The record of the last 6 games: 2 wins, 3 draws and 1 loss, 7 goals in the last 10 games, conceded 8 goals, and goal difference -1.

Group ranking: 0 wins, 0 draws, 0 losses, and 0 points ranked 4th in the group.

away results: 2 wins, 4 draws, 4 losses,

Personnel situation: In the last game, Stoykovic coached the Serbian team with only 35%, but with five shots, both Maximovic and Dusan Vlahovic scored. Key figures such as Aleksandar Mitrovic and Sergej Milinkovic-Savic will lead the team, known for their physical fitness and direct play.

Team Fighting Opinion: Although Serbia has not participated in Group K competition yet, their goal is to win a victory in Tirana and show strong strength. They took the strong momentum of the National League and had firepower that could create a threat to any defense line.

Team Recent Status: Serbia won home in the last game. In the UEFA Nations League match, they defeated Austria 2-0.

Serbia has maintained an unbeaten record in the past 4 games, facing strong teams such as Austria, Denmark and Switzerland.

Serbia has all scored small scores in the past four games, and its style of play is relatively conservative, so you can pay attention to this game.

Recent historical confrontations between the two teams: There were 2 matches in total, Albania achieved a record of 1 win, 0 draw and 1 loss, and the two sides were evenly matched.

Other factors: Due to the political tensions in the two countries in the past and the popular football culture, this game has certain unknowns.

Same Tracking aspect: Initial: The home team has acquired the half-ball, the home team has the same trading trend as this game in the last 6 games: Win Win Win Win Loss Win Loss, Loss, Loss, Loss, Loss, Loss, Loss, Loss, Loss, Loss, Loss, Loss, Loss, Loss.

Albania vs. Serbia

Prematch intelligence:

"Feal Showdown", both sides regard it as a "war"

This game has extremely important historical significance for Albania and Serbia. The relationship between the two countries can be called a "fair feud". Since Serbia conquered and ruled Albania in the medieval times, the historical grudges between the two sides have not been resolved. Especially after the Cold War, the conflict between Serbia and Kosovo intensified. As the majority of Kosovo's residents were Albanians, Albania has always supported Kosovo's independence, which once broke down the diplomatic relations between the two countries. Now, this game has become a direct confrontation between the two countries, carrying strong historical hatred and national sentiment. It is expected that the game will be full of fierce competition and there will be many goals.

Albanian fans were dissatisfied with the high ticket prices, and the home atmosphere may be affected. Before the game, Albanian's main fan organization "Tifozat Kuq e Zi" announced that they will no longer support the national team because the Albanian Football Association set a very high ticket price, with the lowest ticket price as high as 150 euros and the highest at 1,000 euros. What is even more controversial is that the ticketing process was also issued by lottery, which made the fans feel dissatisfied, believing that this method has created an unfair situation. This series of practices could lead to the weakening of Albania's home advantage and not gaining the expected support of the fans.

Albania's lineup is close to the strongest, and all the main players are in place.

Albania's national team lineup is basically complete, with only a few regular players absent, such as full-back Mihai, midfielder Barre and forward Sai Fury, etc. However, these players are not the absolute main players of the team. Albania's roster includes many players who play in the five major leagues, such as Aslani, Ismayili, Husai and Jimsiti. It can be said that Albania will send its strongest lineup to face Serbia..

Serbia has performed poorly on the away game and has not won recently

Serbia's away performance has been relatively sluggish. In the last five official games, they have only achieved 2 draws and 3 losses, and have not won away games in the official game for a long time. The last away victory dates back to the 2023 European qualifiers, when they defeated Lithuania 3-1. This series of unwinding records may have a significant impact on Serbia's confidence in this game.

Serbian goalkeeper lineup is seriously short, and three rookies will attack

Serbia's biggest problem this time is the goalkeeper position. The team's two main goalkeepers, Predrag Rajkovic and Vanja Milinkovic-Savic, were not included in the roster. To this end, Serbia can only summon three goalkeepers, three of which have only 6 national team appearance experiences. The shortage of goalkeeper positions has made Serbia face huge uncertainty in this game.

Albania VS Serbia

1. Strength analysis

Albania: 7 goals in the last 10 games, 9 goals conceded, and a goal difference of -2.

Serbia: 7 goals in the last 10 games, 8 goals conceded, and a goal difference of -1.

In the absolute theory world, the visiting team Serbia has 0.1 goals, and the difference in absolute strength between the two sides is extremely small, reflecting the close strength of the two teams, but Serbia is slightly better with its higher FIFA ranking (31st vs 66th) and the team's value (€245.9m vs €108.6m).

2. Status Analysis

Albania

Recent Record: 2 wins, 1 draw and 3 losses in the last 6 games, with a moderate performance. But the last group match defeated Andorra 3-0, with a ball possession rate of up to 86%, showing his dominance against his equal or weak opponent at home, and the team's morale is in an upward period.

Home performance: Although the home performance (3 wins, 3 draws and 4 losses) is not outstanding in the long run, the team's tactics are clear and rely on home momentum to score points.

personnel situation: The lineup is almost the strongest, with only a few non-absolute main players absent, and the core framework is complete.

Serbia

Recent record: 2 wins, 3 draws and 1 loss in the last 6 games, and unbeaten in the last 4 games. The opponents include Austria, Denmark, Switzerland and other strong teams, which are full of gold and show the team's tough battle ability.

away performance: This is a fatal weakness. In the last five official games, there were no wins, 2 draws and 3 losses, and there were obvious away games.

People Situation: There are huge hidden dangers. Both the main goalkeepers were absent, and the three goalkeepers activated had only 6 national team appearances in total, making it difficult to reassure the last level of the defense line.

Albania has recovered in form and has a home court; Serbia has better record recently but has poor performance away and huge hidden dangers in the goalkeeper position. Overall, Albania's actual game state may have a slight advantage.

3. Fighting intention analysis

Albania: second in the group (3 points in 2 games). If you win in this game, you can consolidate your ranking and strive for first in the group (directly advance to the World Cup). Home games and recent progress (2024 European Cup qualification) have increased morale and are extremely strong in fighting.

Serbia: 4th in the group (not yet played), and the first match needs to grab points to lay the foundation. He has strong players such as Mitrovic and Vlahovic, with clear goals and strong fighting spirit.

Additional factors: The "fighting" relationship in the history of the two countries (involving the Kosovo issue) has elevated the game to the "war" level, and the fighting spirit of both sides has been unprecedentedly high. The game is expected to be fierce and full of gunpowder.

Both sides are at the peak of their fighting intentions and are a "no mobilization" game. Although the Albanian home atmosphere may be affected by fans' boycotts, the particularity of the game is enough to make players on both sides try their best. Both sides are evenly matched in this link.

4. Asia Index Analysis

The initial handicap is the home team's transfer of hemisphere, with the water level of 0.78 and the away team 1.02;

The current instant handicap is the home team's transfer of draw/hemisphere, with the water level of 0.92 and the away team 0.88.

Most institutions opened in the initial session of Albania tied half, but a few institutions opened in the initial session of the acquisition half, and there was suspicion of being lured high. Combined with the fundamentals, Serbian goalkeeper was absent and failed in 5 away games. The initial session of high opening lacked strength support, which is more likely to be lured.

Institutions blindly optimistic about Serbia's funds by opening high in the initial market → downward on-site trading, and may eventually be optimistic about Albania's unbeaten acquisition.

5. Institutional bottom line

win: 3.70 / 3.92 ≈ 0.944;

tie: 3.00 / 3.00 = 1.000;

negative: 2.15 / 1.85 ≈ 1.162.

The three values ​​are all within the institutional bottom line, the main win and draw are lower, and the main unbeaten has an advantage.

6. Handicap scheduled

is calculated based on the international rankings of the two teams, home and away factors and absolute theoretical strength differences. A reasonable handicap should give the away team Serbia a draw half-ball. In this game, the initial handicap is the home team's handicap half-ball, which is one gear higher than the theoretical handicap. This game is a high opening, and the handicap and water level are more conducive to the away team Serbia.

7. Analysis of changes in win, draw and loss trends

The current water level remains unchanged (3.75): Albanian's main victory is a "high compensation and cold option". The institution maintains the water level unchanged, but in fact, high water is used to cover up the real tendency. Albania's strongest lineup plays, has a stable home defense (conceded 1 goal in the last 3 home games), and is driven by the feud, with a foundation of upset.

The level of the draw dropped (3.20→3.00): The agency lowers the draw compensation, combined with the fundamentals, "Feen Confrontation + strong fighting spirit between the two sides", reflects the prevention of "strength draw". Serbia has scored small scores in its last 4 games (conservative style), Albania has 2 clean sheets in the last 3 home games, and the draw is in line with the tactical tendency of both sides..

The water level of away wins rose (2.05→2.20): The institution actively increased the away win compensation, reflecting that Serbia's weak confidence in winning is directly related to the fundamental risks (the goalkeeper is absent and the away game is weak). Initial bid for away wins and low losses (2.05) uses Serbia’s “strong team label” to attract funds, and the on-the-spot compensation is increased to 2.20, cleaning up the funds of blindly buying away teams, implying that it is difficult to get a run in the upper set (Serbia).

Transaction trend chart

8. Transaction data analysis

Main win: The main win transaction volume accounts for only 10%, the lowest in the three directions, and the transaction price is accompanied by large transactions upward (up from 3.7 to 3.95), indicating that the buyer's demand is extremely weak, and the seller actively raises the compensation threshold. The number of orders placed in the high-price range is significantly higher than that of the transaction area. Institutions attract funds from placing orders inflated highs, but the actual transactions are sparse, which is essentially a risk of deception. Transaction data shows that there is a lack of market consensus on main wins. Institutions create "cost-performance illusion" by placing orders with high compensation, but in fact, the real support is extremely weak.

draw: The draw volume accounts for 63%, with a popularity of 67, both of which are the highest in three directions, and the transaction price is accompanied by a large-scale transaction downward (from 3.4 to 3.25), indicating that the buyer actively downwards the price and the seller passively accepts the transaction, reflecting the market's strong tendency towards the draw. At the 3.3 and 3.35 price levels, the institutions lock in risks through low indexes, implying that the probability of getting a draw is the lowest. When both sides are both in a strong sense of fighting and institutions are diverted through a low index of draw, the probability of a draw exceeds 50%. Based on the transaction data, this draw is the most preferred.

Home win: The transaction volume of away win accounts for 27%, with a popularity of 20. The transaction price is accompanied by a decline in transactions (from 2.36 to 2.28). On the surface, the buyer's confidence has increased, but the amount of orders for low compensation is abnormally high. Institutions use low-level orders to trick funds into following the trend. The actual transaction is concentrated in the medium and high compensation range, and the main funds have not really intervened. The index is 0.17 higher than the draw, indicating that the agency's assessment of the compensation risk for away wins is higher than the draw, and capital inflows are more of retail investors driven by the "strong team label". The characteristics of low compensation and large orders but scattered actual transactions are consistent, which is likely to be a trick to lure the market.

Online voting results

From the current winning, draw and loss water level data, compared with the results data of previous games, the average probability of winning is 23.3%, the average probability of drawing is 29.1%, the average probability of winning away is 47.6%, and the average handicap index of Asian handicap is -0.47.

Final prediction suggestions: high probability of draw

score: 1-1 (19%), 1-2 (15%), 2-2 (12%)

Total number of goals: 2 goals (29%), 3 goals (26%), 4 goals (16%)

high probability does not necessarily mean that you can play. This is just a theoretical value and provides auxiliary reference. Analyses can only be performed based on current data. On-site data may change. If the on-site data changes greatly, you still need to make careful judgments.