6.28 Club World Cup Sports Lottery Football Recommendation: Pamelas VS Bottafogo, England 2VS Germany 21, Benfica VS Chelsea

Pamelas vs. Botafogo

Event: 2025 FIFA Club World Cup round of 16 knockout matches

Palmeiras:

10 wins, 2 draws and 3 losses in the last 15 games, averaging 1.7 goals and conceded 0.6 goals. The offense and defense are balanced but the stability is insufficient.

Club World Cup Group Championship 1 win and 2 draws (scoring 4 goals and conceding 2 goals), and advanced as the top spot in Group A, but almost tied Miami International 2-2 in the last round and exposed loopholes in the defense.

Core: 18-year-old winger Estewan (2 MVPs in the group stage) has the key to attack; forward Lopez has three goals in the last 5 games.

Injuries: Central defender Murillo (thigh strain) and midfielder Moreno (hamstring discomfort) are suspected of playing, and the stability of the defense line is doubtful.

Tactics:

Advantages: Mainly play with right cross + set pieces tactics, and is good at high altitude top (average 6.9 corner kicks); strong long-range shooting ability in midfield (Richard Rios, Mauricio).

Disadvantages: easy to fall into the offside trap (Botafogo is good at creating offside); the defense line is fragile in the counterattack against the straight pass (has been quickly broken through many times in the group stage).

Botafogo:

10 wins, 1 draw and 4 losses in the last 15 games, with a winning rate of 67%, averaging 1.5 goals and 0.7 goals conceded, and a more stable defense.

The group stage was overwhelmed by Paris Saint-Germain 1-0, ending the South American team's record of not winning European teams in 13 years, and its morale was high.

Core: Igor Jesus (the hero of winning the group stage) counterattack speed is the biggest threat; goalkeeper John Victor saves stable.

Injuries: Midfielder Gregor is suspended, forwards Jefferson and Matthews are short of injuries for a long time.

Tactics:

Advantages: High pressure press + fast counterattack, striker Igor Jesus (2 goals in the group stage) is extremely efficient; set-piece offense threats (Alex Telles takes the penalty).

Disadvantages: weak air defense capability (low success rate for top-strike); midfield core Gregor was suspended and his organizational ability was damaged.

Historical Confrontation: Botafogo has won 3 and tied 2 in the last 5 confrontations and has been unbeaten, crushing Palmeiras 8-4 in total goals. In the latest encounter (March 2025 Brazilian League) draw 0-0, Botafogo's intensive defense successfully restricted the opponent's offense.

draw or Palmeiras win 1-1 1-0/2-1

Winning points:

Palmeiras needs to rely on Estevan's personal breakthrough or set-piece to break the deadlock, and the central defender combination needs to limit Jesus' impact. Botafogo needs to take advantage of Palmeiras' left-side defense loophole, steal points through counterattacks or set pieces, and survive the physical crisis in the second half.

England 21VS Germany 21

England U21: Eliminate Spain 3-1 and defeated the Netherlands 2-1, with full firepower on the offensive end (2.4 goals per game). Elliott (two goals in the semi-finals) and Saka (150 million euros worth) are the core weapons. However, the defense line has obvious hidden dangers, and he has conceded goals in the last three games. Central defender Baylis's ability to defend air defense has decreased (the success rate of header is 68%).

Injury: The midfield core Bellingham is absent due to the Club World Cup mission, and the substitute Morton (shoulder injury) is in doubt; central defender Baylis is suspended, and the substitute Martel's air defense success rate is only 71%, which may be targeted by German high center Archer.

Tactics (4-3-3/4-2-3-1):

Advantages: High-pressing + precise pass (90% pass success rate), strong midfield control (Moton + Elliott dual-core drive); sharp breakthroughs on both wings (Saka& Livramento).

Disadvantages: Fluctuations in front line efficiency (only 1 win in 3 games in the group stage), more fouls (5 games 51 fouls) are easy to give away set pieces.

Germany U21: This event maintained a complete victory, scoring 9 goals in the group stage and conceding only 2 goals. The offensive core Waltermad (6 goals)'s sense of smell in front of the goal and Musiara's dribbling ability pose a double threat. The defensive end relies on interceptions from both midfielders (Alan + Tres averages 12 steals per game), but the high-level defense is easily penetrated by speed forwards (only 4 clean sheets in the last 10 games).

Injuries: Main central defender Bella - Kosha has suspended the game with a cumulative yellow card, and substitute center back Martel has insufficient experience; winger Kenauf withdrew due to injury, and his crossing ability from the wing was weakened.

Tactics (4-2-3-1):

Advantages: High pressure press + fast conversion, the front line led by Watmad (6 goals and 3 assists) is terrifying; the set ball threatens a lot (corner kick, straight pass accurate).

Disadvantages: Inadequate midfield discipline (87 fouls in 5 games), weak air defense capabilities (center defenders’ average height is below 1.85 meters).

Historical Confrontations:

The last 5 Confrontations: England won 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 loss, but Germany won 2-1 in this group stage (Konauf 1 goal and 1 assist).

Final Experience: England is the defending champion (2-0 defeated Germany in the 2023 final), while Germany is eager to end the 20-year European Youth Championship without a championship.

draw or Germany's small victory 2-11-1/2-2

Winning points:

England needs to use Saka/Eliot's wide breakthrough to create murderous intent, and break the deadlock with Archer's header; the defense line needs to limit Musiara's personal performance to avoid losing points on set pieces. Germany needs to rely on Musiara's breakthrough and Waltermad's sense of smell in front of the goal, and at the same time cut off the connection between England's midfielders through the interception of the double midfielder.

Benfica vs Chelsea

Event: 2025 FIFA Club World Cup quarterfinals 16 knockout matches

Benfica: 6 wins and 4 draws unbeaten in the last 10 games, with a balanced offense and defense (average of 2.7 goals / conceded 0.6 goals), and a zero-blocking rate of 50%. In the group stage, Di Maria scored 3 penalty kicks to establish the victory, Otamendi's header (success rate of 80.6%) and wing breakthroughs (Shierdrup per game 3.2 key passes) are core weapons.. However, the main central defender Silva was reimbursed for the season, and the success rate of substitute Morato's air defense was only 68%, which may become the target of Chelsea's high-altitude strike.

Injury: The main left-back Fernandez returns, but four other players including Florentino and Silva are absent, and the midfield rotation is tight.

Tactics (4-2-3-1):

Advantages: Quick counterattack + sharp set-piece attack (9 goals were scored by 7 players in the group stage); high-level pressure restricts opponents from playing; Alvaro Fernandez returns to enhance his breakthrough on the wing.

Disadvantages: weak air defense ability (center-back average height is insufficient); midfielder Florentino is injured and weakened interception.

Chelsea: 8 wins and 2 losses in the last 10 games, relying on Palmer (averages 3.5 key passes) and Nkunku's wing breakthroughs, but the set-piece defense loopholes are significant (the group stage was defeated by Flamengo 3 goals). The new coach Maresca changed the 343 system to activate Enzo (average 89 passes, 92% success rate), but the high-level defense line's recovery speed is insufficient (29km/h), and it may be broken by Benfica's counterattack.

Injury: Muderick was suspended, Fifana and Kellyman were injured, but the lineup was deep enough, and Drapp (1 goal and 1 assist in 3 games) and Nkunku's recovery in form made up for some of the losses.

Tactics (4-3-3):

Advantages: Strong midfield control (Enzo + Kesedo combination); fast conversion between sides and middle; Jackson returns to improve the speed threat.

Disadvantages: Setting ball defense has a large loophole (conceding a goal against Flamengo in the group stage); long-range shot defense is weak; high-pressure pressing efficiency may decline in high temperatures.

Historical confrontation:

Chelsea absolutely crushed: 4 matches in history, scored 8 goals and conceded 1 goal, including a 2-1 final in the 2013 Europa League final.

Benfica's mentality challenge: the inner demons who need to overcome the disadvantages of the confrontation are better at high temperatures (beat Bayern at 37°C in the group stage).

Chelsea's small victory or draw 0-1 1-2 1-1

Winning and Loss Points: Benfica needs to use Di Maria's wide breakthrough and Otamendi's header to break the deadlock, and at the same time, the midfield strangle to limit Chelsea's offensive organization. Chelsea need to create murderous intentions through Enzo's midfield dispatch and Palmer's wing cut, while strengthening the set piece defense and using Jacquesson's speed to counterattack.