It seems that it is getting harder for the NBA to defend the champion, but it has been gone since the Warriors in 2018

On May 19, in the history of the NBA, defending the championship has always been an important indicator of the team's dominance. However, since the Golden State Warriors successfully defended their title in 2018, there has been no team in the league that can win the O'Brien Cup again. Behind this phenomenon are profound changes in the NBA competitive landscape and the multiple challenges brought about by the development of modern basketball.

###1. The disintegration of the super team and the reshuffle of the league structure

The Warriors in 2018 were one of the most dominant teams in NBA history. They have four All-Star players, Curry, Durant, Thompson and Green, and continue to strengthen their role players on this basis. However, this super team building model has gradually collapsed in recent years. Durant chose to leave after a ruptured Achilles tendon in the 2019 Finals, Thompson suffered severe injuries in succession, and the core lineup of the Warriors Dynasty fell apart. At the same time, other teams are also facing similar problems - the Lakers quickly declined due to injuries and aging of lineups after winning the championship in 2020, and the Bucks were stopped in the second round due to Middleton's injury after winning the championship in 2021. The short life cycle of the super team makes defending the title extremely difficult.

###2. Injury: The biggest enemy on the road to defending the title

The schedule intensity and intensity of the modern NBA are far more than before. Take the Warriors in the 2021-22 season as an example. After winning the championship, they experienced a long quit with core players. Curry, Thompson and Green took turns to be absent due to injuries, which directly led to fluctuations in the team's record. Although the Nuggets in 2023 have healthy Jokic and Murray, Porter Jr.'s back problems are always a hidden danger. Not to mention the 2024 Celtics Porzingis' knee injury directly affected the trend of the finals. Official NBA data shows that in the past five years, each team has suffered an average of 2.3 main injuries, an increase of 40% from ten years ago.

###33. The constraints of salary rules and the dilemma of lineup depth

The implementation of the new 2017 labor-management agreement has made the punishment of luxury taxes more severe. To retain the championship lineup, the Warriors paid a record $170 million luxury tax in the 2019-20 season, but still couldn't stop the departure of key players such as Iguodala and Livingston. After the Nuggets won the championship in 2023, rotational players such as Bruce Brown and Jeff Green were poached by other teams at high salaries, directly weakening their competitiveness in defending the title. According to statistics, the championship teams in the past five years lost an average of 3.2 major rotation players the following year, and this loss of lineup depth doubled the difficulty of defending the title.

###4. Targeted reinforcement and tactical evolution of opponents

Modern teams have reached an unprecedented level of meticulousness. After the Warriors won the championship in 2022, the league teams followed their "five small lineups" and developed a more complex double-teaming strategy for Curry. The "Jokic system" of the Nuggets in 2023 triggered a trend of looking for tall insides across the league. The Lakers, Timberwolves and other teams have hoarded center resources during the offseason. What is more noteworthy is the progress in tactical analysis - through big data and video analysis, opponents can quickly adjust their strategies in the series. The 2024 Celtics coaching staff revealed that they have prepared at least three response plans for each tactical round of the Nuggets.

###5. Psychological fatigue and locker room problems

Invisible pressure in the defending season is often underestimated. After the Lakers won the 2020 championship at Disney Park, James publicly admitted that "psychological fatigue is more serious than physical"; in 2021, the Bucks Holiday said that "every opponent is proud of defeating the defending champion." The locker room problem is also fatal: Although the conflict between Warriors Green and Poole in 2022 has not been made public, insiders revealed that this has affected the team's chemistry; in 2023, the Nuggets Porter Jr. and coach Malone have a disagreement over their playing time. A survey by the NBA Players Union showed that 70% of defending champion players believed that "the second year is more difficult."

###6. The rise of new generation stars and the transfer of power

The technological maturity of new generation superstars such as Antetokounmpo, Jokic, and Tatum has accelerated the transfer of power in the league. These players continue to evolve at the golden age of 27-30 - Jokic developed more stable three-pointers, Tatum improved his key ball ability, and Edwards' breakthrough efficiency increased by 5% every year. At the same time, the core of the veteran strong team is obviously aging: Curry still maintains his peak at the age of 36, but his playing time is limited, and James has to reduce his ball holding ratio at the age of 40. This trend of one rises and the other falls makes it difficult for any team to maintain their dominance for a long time.

###7. Future Outlook: New Variables of the Possibilities of Defending the Championship

Despite the challenges, the league is still seeking balance. The setting of the "second tyrant line" in the new version of the labor-capital agreement has to some extent suppressed the poaching behavior of competitors. The advancement of medical technology has also made the team better at managing the star load - the Celtics use AI systems to predict injury risks in 2024, and accurately determine the main players' rest time to minutes. Perhaps the biggest variable lies in the growth rate of talent in the new generation such as Wenban Yama and Homgren, who may break the existing competitive balance.

In this era of superstars being scattered, changing tactics and frequent injuries, defending the championship is becoming a more challenging task than winning the championship. It is no longer just about the performance of the stadium, but also a comprehensive test of management's operational capabilities, medical team level, and locker room cohesion. As Warriors general manager Miles said: "In the current NBA, it is a miracle to win the championship, and to defend the title, you need a miracle among miracles." This ultimate competition may be the most charming characteristic of the contemporary NBA.