The Pacers have no chance of the finals of the Thunder and Pacers? Believe in the Miracle

On June 4, the 2025 NBA Finals are about to kick off, and the showdown between the Oklahoma City Thunder and the Indiana Pacers has sparked widespread discussion. The outside world generally believes that the Thunder have a clear advantage, but the charm of competitive sports lies in its unpredictability. Let's analyze this seemingly disparate showdown from multiple perspectives.

**1. Book strength comparison: The Thunder's luxury battleship**

The Thunder has shown a suffocating dominance this season. Shay Gilgers-Alexander's average of 31.2 points and 5.8 assists per game makes him the most powerful contender for MVP. This offense and defense guard has performed a good show of riding alone in the playoffs. Chet Homgren's growth exceeded expectations, averaging 18.4 points, 9.3 rebounds and 3.2 blocks per game, making him selected for the All-Squad and All-Defensive Team at the same time. Coupled with the threading of veteran Chris Paul, the Thunder's offensive efficiency ranks first in the league. On the defensive end, the Thunder have the most terrifying forward group in the league. Lüganz Dort's outside biting ability combined with Jaylen Williams' all-around defense, allowing the opponent to make 16.7 turnovers per game. Data shows that the Thunder suppressed their opponent's three-point shooting percentage at 32.1%, leading the league in this data.

**2. The Pacers' invisible advantage: Underrated team basketball **

On the surface, the Pacers are indeed dim in starlight. Although Tyres Halliburton's average of 21.3 points and 11.2 assists per game is impressive, it is indeed slightly inferior to Alexander. However, the terrifying thing about this team is its nearly perfect system operation. The dynamic offensive system created by head coach Rick Carlisle has given the Pacers' playoff assist rate as high as 68.3%, setting a team record in the finals in the past decade.

Inside combinations Miles Turner and Pascal Siakam form a perfect complement. Turner's franchise protection (2.9 blocks per game) and Siakam's misplaced singles ability make the Pacers not suffer in scoring in the penalty area. More importantly, the Pacers are sitting on the bench with a super sixth man like Benedict Mathulin. His average of 9.3 points per game in the fourth quarter of the playoffs is a "last quarter killer".

**3. Analysis of X factors: variables that may change the situation**

1. **Injury hazards**: The Thunder core Alexander suffered an ankle sprain in G5 in the Western Conference Finals. Although he was confirmed to play in the finals, his condition was doubtful. It is rare in recent years that all Pacers have entered the finals healthy.

2. **Home Advantage**: The Thunder have a home advantage in the series, but the Pacers' away winning rate this season is as high as 68.3%, making them one of the best teams in the league to play away.

3. **Psychological Factors**: Most of the Thunder players participated in the finals for the first time, while Xiakam, McConnell and others in the Pacers have experience in the finals. Siakam's experience of winning the championship with the Raptors in 2019 is particularly precious.

4. **Referee Scale**: So far in the playoffs, the Pacers have averaged 26.7 free throws per game, while the Thunder have only 21.3. If the referee encourages physical confrontation, the Pacers' breakthrough pass-through system will benefit more.

**4. Historical revelation: The following classic cases**

Looking back at NBA history, similar confrontations are full of miracles:

- In 2004, the Pistons defeated the F4 Lakers

- In 2011, Nowitzki defeated the Heat's Big Three alone

- In 2019, the Raptors defeated the Warriors

, and in 2019, these cases prove that team basketball, tactical execution and on-the-spot status are often more important than paper strength. The Pacers have eliminated Embiid's 76ers and Tatum's Celtics this season, and their resilience cannot be underestimated.

**5. Key points of tactical game**

Coach Carlisle needs to solve several core issues:

1. How to limit Alexander's breakthrough? It may use the "Iron Barrel Array" with Dort main defense and Turner assisted defense.

2. Can the weakness of the Thunder's inadequate inside line be taken advantage of? Siakam's low singles will become an important weapon.

3. Game outside the three-point line: The Pacers must keep the three-point shooting percentage above 38% to have a chance of winning.

Thunder should be noted:

1. Avoid falling into the Pacers' rhythm and control the number of rounds of the game.

2. Give full play to the height of the front line to target Halliburton's defensive weaknesses.

3. Ensure rebounding, especially the battle for frontcourt rebounds.

**6. Winning and losing hands outside the data**

1. **Fatiguing factors**: The Thunder eliminated the Nuggets after seven battles, while the Pacers rested for two more days. This extra 48 hours of recovery time may have a butterfly effect during the two-month playoff journey.

2. **Role player explosion**: Shooters like Andrew Nemhard of the Pacers and Isaiah Joe of the Thunder may change the direction of the series once a certain outbreak occurs.

3. **Coach Fight**: As the representative of the new generation of coaches, Mark Degenut's game with champion coach Carlisle is worth looking forward to. The latter led the Mavericks to create miracles in 2011.

**7. Rational prediction and emotional expectation**

The probability of winning the championship given by professional institutions shows that the Thunder is 72% and the Pacers is 28%. This gap is actually smaller than the probability difference when the Cavaliers reversed the Warriors in 2016 (ESPN gave the Cavaliers only 3% chance of winning the championship). The series is likely to show the following developments:

- G1 Thunders lead at home

- Pacers steal a away game

- The middle is in a tug-of-war

- The key battle depends on the quality of the stars, but basketball games are never simple numbers. When Halliburton used his wild pass to drive the team, when Turner built a no-fly zone on the defensive end, and when Carlisle made a stunning tactical adjustment, the Pacers were fully capable of dragging the series into tiebreak. And once the battle reaches the last moment, the outcome is really only a slight margin.

Conclusion: There has never been a real "weak" in NBA history to enter the Finals. The Pacers have proved their tenacity and intelligence throughout the season, while the Thunder need to overcome the psychological pressure of "the hottest will die". Perhaps as legendary coach Pat Riley said: "The finals are never compared to who is stronger, but who can better seize fleeting opportunities. "At the end of the game, nothing is possible.