The NBA draw was a big upset! The result is intriguing. The Rockets missed the counterattack, and the Mavericks were compensated?

May 13th news, the NBA lottery ceremony was officially held this morning, but a big upset broke out. There are 14 teams participating in the lottery draw this year, and the final ranking is: Spurs, Hawks, Bulls, Trail Blazers, Rockets, Raptors, Nets, Pelicans, Wizards, Jazz, Hornets, 76ers, Spurs and Mavericks. Why did the draw result make a big upset? Because the result was beyond everyone's expectations. The bad team represented by the Jazz didn't even make the last four. Some aspirations are not bad, and the team's record declined due to injuries, and the Mavericks who played in the playoffs were favored by the No. 1 pick with a 1.8% chance.

Combined with the probability of 14 teams winning the No. 1 pick before the lottery conference, the Jazz, Wizards and Hornets are really miserable, with a 14% chance of being the No. 1 pick, which led to a 1.8% chance of being a counterattack. In addition, the Spurs and the 76ers were lucky, and they each won the second pick and the Tanhua lottery, which is also a good choice. As for the Rockets, who are more concerned about by fans, the first round picks obtained by the Suns did not make a surprise counterattack to the top three, and only got a tenth pick, but it was still more in line with the probability of 3.8%. This year's draft lottery conference was really surprising, especially the top three picks, but the results were also very intriguing.

Why is this result more intriguing? There are two details worth exploring. First, the teams that have won high-quality draft picks are not those that have been played out for a long time or deliberately, such as the Jazz, Wizards, and Hornets. As for the Spurs, they also have two draws in the top 14 picks, which increases the probability of entering the top three. Let’s look at the top three teams. The Mavericks didn’t want to play badly, but their record declined due to injury problems, but they did not give up and even played in the playoffs. In fact, the Spurs didn't want to play badly at the beginning of this year, but unfortunately, Wenban was injured and had to do so in the end. As for the 76ers, they also suffered injuries from the three main players and finally got bad. The top three teams have one thing in common, that is, they are not deliberately trying to make bad things, but because of injuries.

Let's look at the second detail, that is, why can the Mavericks win the No. 1 pick with a probability of 1.8%? Before the transaction deadline, if the Mavericks did not send Doncic to the Lakers, they might not have the chance to draw lots. It is precisely because of this transaction that shocked the league that the Mavericks were questioned by the outside world that both executives and bosses were stupid and had a lot of money, and made the most wrong deal, which even affected the league's structure. Now let’s look at the draft results based on these two details. The NBA’s meaning is very clear. The team that deliberately played badly did not have a good result. The team that did not deliberately played badly received compensation was "compensation". The Mavericks, who had a "major mistake", won the No. 1 pick, which was more like compensating Doncic's deal.