Magic and Rockets: Similar potential and dilemma

To build a championship team in the NBA world, the last few steps are always the most difficult.

Rockets and Magic are examples. Both teams completed rebuilding between 2021 and 2023, and both won top six picks. With young players and loose cap space, the Rockets and Magic are expected to become regulars in their respective divisions' playoffs in the next few years. The Rockets won 52 wins this season. Although the Magic suffered from injuries, they still entered the playoffs for the second consecutive year. Nowadays, the question is no longer whether they can enter the playoffs, but whether their lineup can be strong enough to make a difference in the playoffs.

fans of the two teams are not difficult to find what they are in common. The Magic ranked second in the league in defensive efficiency this season, with the Rockets ranking fourth behind. Both teams have obvious advantages in this regard: the Magic leads with the league's first turnover rate, while the Rockets dominate with offensive rebound rate. However, the offensive end is the common weakness of the two teams. The Magic's offensive efficiency ranks only 27th in the league, while the Rockets are slightly better, ranking 13th.

The shooting problem is particularly prominent, not just three-pointers. The Magic's true hit rate ranks fourth from the bottom in the league (28th place), and the Rockets are not much better (24th place). In the playoffs, the unilateral advantages of these two teams were fully exposed. In the seventh life-and-death battle against the Golden State Warriors, the Rockets scored only 39 points in the first half and only 34 points in the first game. Both losses occurred at home. Although the Magic made the opponent not score a single point in the first half in the fifth game against the Celtics, they were weak in offense and only led 49-47 to enter the halftime break. The Magic scored only 13 points in the third quarter, and the game and season ended there. The

Magic's three-point shooting percentage is only 26.3%, ranking last among the playoff teams. The Rockets' problem is that they have too few three-point shots, ranking last among the teams in the playoffs, and only ranked 13th in real shooting percentage, and the offensive end is entirely supported by offensive rebounds.

Entering the offseason, both teams face difficult choices, but they also have huge opportunities. Both teams have assets, young players and relatively loose salary space. However, sticking to the status quo and waiting patiently is no longer the best choice. The key differences between the two teams may define their respective paths.

Orlando Magic: The Magic won only 41 wins in the regular season, partly because star forwards Franz Wagner and Paul Benkairo missed multiple games due to rare oblique abdomen injury. In addition, Jaylen Sages only played 35 games due to a knee injury and was reimbursed for the season, it is reasonable that the Magic's 47-win record of losing to the Cavaliers in the first round of 2024 was reduced to 47 wins.

However, the urgency of the magic is increasing as lineup costs climb rapidly. Wagner and Bankairo (almost certain) maximum salary contracts, coupled with Suggs’ generous renewal, will bring Magic closer to the luxury tax line in the next two years. (Wagner was not nominated for All-Star due to injury, indirectly avoiding an increase in contract costs by about $4 million a year.)

Magic also need to examine whether Ban Keiro can truly become the cornerstone of the team. He has outstanding physical fitness, has improved mid-range jump shots and excellent passing vision. If there are better shooters around, his passing ability will be more prominent. But in the past two years, the Magic has been at a slight disadvantage when Bankairo is present, and the combination of Wagner and Bankairo has only improved slightly. The proportion of the two shots at the basket was relatively low (both of them were around 21% this season, and Wagner relied more on close range to shoot), which made the offense difficult.

In addition, it is difficult for two core players with similar body shapes to form a tacit understanding in offensive cooperation, and they often "take turns to singles". Other teams (such as the Celtics’ Brown and Tatum) have found a solution, but the Magic hasn’t done it yet.

Wagner's shooting performance this season is also worrying. At the beginning of the season, he made a key three-pointer to defeat the Lakers; but in April, his shooting movements were significantly slower, with his three-point shooting percentage falling from 32.1% before injury to 26.1% in the playoffs. For a player who hits a free throw percentage of 87.1%, such a sluggish three-point performance is puzzling. The first priority in the offseason is to improve the projection and open up space for star players. The Magic pointed out that almost all players on the team's shooting performance this season is below career average, especially free agent Pope (over 40% in the Nuggets and only 34.2% in the Magic).

Even if some players return to normal levels, there are still many problems. Bankairo and Wagner need to improve their shooting performance to achieve each other. The floor space at the center position is also crucial. Wendell Carter can occasionally shoot three-pointers, but lacks the desire to shoot. On the outside, Sargers made frequent shots but his shooting percentage was unstable, and Anthony Black had excellent defense but his shooting still needed improvement. The wing shooter drafts in the past three years (such as Caleb Hustan, Jet Howard and Tristan da Silva) have not been effective either.

Perhaps more important is to find a defender who can share the organizational tasks for Benkairo and Wagner. Over the past two years, the Magic's perimeter has little organizational ability, forcing the two forwards to undertake too many offensive tasks. Although it is a good story for veteran Cory Joseph to become the starting point guard, it also reflects the team's dilemma. Introducing a guard who can play pick-and-roll with two forwards and hit the basket by himself may be more critical than signing another shooter.

Fortunately, the magic has trading chips. Despite the pressure of luxury tax, the Magic can easily drop below the luxury tax line by abandoning Mo Wagner’s $11 million team option (even subsequently renewing with a lower salary). In addition, multiple middle-class contracts on the team (such as Cole Anthony's $13.1 million contract, including the 2026-27 team options) can be used as a trading salary match, with the targets such as Anthony Simmons of the Trail Blazers or Kobe White of the Bulls, while high-paying stars such as Trae Young or Lamelo Ball may be beyond the salary range.

Magic also have an advantage in draft picks, with two first-round picks in 2025 without more development players. The reserves of the second round picks in the future and the first round picks (if not the top eight) that can be a side with the Suns or Wizards in 2026 are also valuable. On draft night, Magic theoretically can use all six first-round picks for trading (although unlikely).

All signs indicate that the time for the Magic lineup is ripe. It is reported that the Magic still have confidence in last year's two first-round picks, Black and Da Silva, but may streamline other young players and introduce more veterans. Solving shooting and organizational issues and building a suitable lineup around Bankairo and Wagner is the key to determining how far the two can go in the future.

Houston Rockets: The situation and magic of the search for the leading figure

Rockets are quite mirror-like. The Magic has made it clear that Ban Keiro and Wagner are the core, and are optimizing the supporting cast; the Rockets have enviable depth and talent, but have not yet locked in the leading figure. The series against the Warriors exposed the Rockets' lack of a reliable offensive starting point at critical moments. Fred VanVleet occasionally broke out, and Jaylen Green also scored 38 points in the second game, but the backcourt players found it difficult to continue to break through the top defense. This puts huge pressure on All-Star center Alperen Shinkyung. He was extremely threatening when switching to small men and could pass the ball in the face of double teams, but in the match against Drummond Green, he had difficulty scoring with singles.

It is worth mentioning that Shen Jing has great potential. He played in the NBA for four years and only turned 23 in July. His biggest problem is his skilled 10-foot drop-off this season, which was seriously inaccurate in the 2022-23 season. If you can restore the sight of this area (the opponent often lets him go), the situation may be very different.

Similarly, Shin Kyung's signature one-foot 15-foot jump shot (called "Flamingoes" by Rockets commentator) would pave the way for his powerful breakthrough if it could be more stable. In addition, his free throw percentage (69.3% and 69.2% in the past two seasons) was relatively low, especially in the third game against the Warriors, which affected the final result of the game.

The good news is that the Rockets are not too radical in Shin Kyung's contract renewal, with a five-year $187 million contract (average annual $33.9 million) equivalent to Green's $33.3 million, retaining salary flexibility. If Shin Kyung becomes the second leader of the top team, this contract is worthwhile. Another key to the Rockets' salary strategy is VanVleet's $44.9 million team option next season. Given the scarcity of quality free-market players, the Rockets may reject the option and then sign a long-term contract with a lower annual salary. This will allow the team to retain space below the luxury tax line, renew Steven Adams and sign a shooter with some exceptions.

The next is a difficult choice. With numerous high picks and highly sought-after young players, the decision on renewal in the next three years will be crucial. The Rockets will almost certainly break through the luxury tax line, but are working to delay the moment.

The decision starts with a player who has not entered the rotation. Reed Shepard played for the 2024 Tanhua Show this season with few playing time, and Cam Whitmore shining in the past two summer leagues, but was silent in the regular season. Don't forget that the Rockets may still draw the No. 1 pick this year (swap with the Suns, with a 3.8% chance of winning the No. 1 pick, a 17.8% chance of entering the top four, but it is more likely to fall in ninth).

The Rockets also need to decide whether to renew their contracts for Jabbarry Smith and Tari Ethan in the 2022 Tanhua Show. Smith's shooting is theoretically a big weapon, but his inability to be a center and his limited dribbling ability weakens his value (for the Warriors series, he often makes mistakes against a small player's dribbling breakthrough). Ethan was slightly volatile in the half-time offense, but was extremely dynamic in defense and fast break; however, he overlapped with new star Amen Thompson and another starter Dillon Brooks.

This returns to the question of leading figures. The Rockets may be hesitant to trade top stars due to potential growth of Thompson or Shin Kyung. At the same time, Green leads the team per game this season and is only 23 years old. Although he may be the weakest scoring champion in the 52-win team, his athletic talent is unquestionable and he has improved year by year. A year later, we may have a very different evaluation of him.

But Green's contract extension seems to pave the way for him as the core and also prepare salary matching chips for potential big deals, especially if the Rockets get another defender in the draft and Shepard proves that he deserves more playing time in the second season.

Rockets' trading assets are top in the league, second only to the Thunder. I mentioned the possibility of trading letters, but the Rockets can also pursue stars like Devin Booker, or almost any player they are interested in through two unprotected Suns first-round picks in 2027 and 2029.

Although Kevin Durant's age doesn't seem to be very suitable, a superstar who meets the Rockets' timeline will inevitably feel dissatisfied within the next 12 months. The Rockets' cap space and asset reserves are ready to go, and almost any player and asset portfolio can be flexibly adjusted according to the needs of trading partners and the status of target players.

However, this season shows that the time for patience has passed. The Rockets can retain their existing lineup and make it to the playoffs every year, but it seems difficult to find a player among this group of players who can lead the team into June. From now until the next trading deadline, management’s mission is to use its unparalleled asset reserves to find that correct answer.